My price predictions up to 2020 (started January 2018) (Reddit Bitcoin)
tl;dr If you plan to buy, do not do it unless you’re ready to stay in for 2 years (in the worst case) If you plan to sell, do not do it unless you need money If you are hodling – hodl on ———- I started watching Bitcoin in 2012 and I always made price forecasts. Some were right. Most of them were wrong, especially at first. After correctly predicting the fall of the bubble in January 2018, I decided to hold myself accountable for my past predictions. I entered all the bitstamp historical data: https://i.redd.it/9tecbzc05k731.png Well – well, it looks like a line! Let’s add a grid and see how it looks https://i.redd.it/rz57xaw55k731.png I ended up doing the best (green) and worst (purple + blue) scenarios, as well as the “average” (cyan) scenarios. Very scientific.Later, I discovered that “trustworthy traders” who do “technical analysis” call it a “trend line”. I must say that sounds like a bunch of nonsense, and I have the respect as to my graph (very little). At this point, I made my own wild predictions: – 2018 would be an essentially negative year. Probably all year, if the price did not fall very quickly the first months – The price will converge again to the worst case. It’s a buy signal when it touches the purple line. Let’s see how it turned out https://i.redd.it/apq75xsg6k731.png Wow, it’s so close to converge! Just another month and it’s a purchase! Right? WRONG! https://i.redd.it/h7rfcwngck731.png What happened? Am I wrong? It’s completely against the trend.I was happy not to have bought at this stage. I did some soul searching. And I searched for more data. What happened before Bitstamp? Good old MtGox, of course. Align this veeery carefully (nope, remember, it does not matter): https://i.redd.it/j0bkpsd17k731.png Ok, it looks a little different. Now, it’s starting to look more like an asymptotic curve. Let’s try to draw it https://i.redd.it/9yno5iyg7k731.png I was a little depressed after that. I guess this growth can not continue indefinitely (you all knew that, did not you?).Ok, new targets! This will continue to drop a little more until it meets one of the curves Here is the situation today: https://i.redd.it/5v26asm29k731.png Think about this chart the next time you hear people say “100,000 by 2019!” or “it’s going to 0.” The truth is probably in the middle. Happy hodling! — FAQ: * Why use a logarithmic (and not linear) graph:* From the point of view of investment, bitcoin ranging from 10 to 20 is exactly the same as going from 10,000 to 20,000. All investments grow exponentially in the long term (because of the compounding), and 10 years is a very long time for new technologies. * Did you really save all these files when you say you did? * No, except the bitstamp, mtgox and trendlines / curves, I’ve done everything again for this post. *Your english is weird* Tor, one-post account, and google translate back and forth.I’m not a whale, but I do not take chances.People have been kidnapped and murdered before.
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