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Price analysis 7/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB

Traders expect Bitcoin to swoop below its swing low before the price flattens out and altcoins begin to recover.

Bitcoin dropped 56.2% in the second quarter of 2022, according to crypto analytics platform Coinglass. That makes it Bitcoin’s worst quarter since the third quarter of 2011 when BTC price fell by 67%. A large part of the damage was done in the month of June when Bitcoin plunged 37%, the worst monthly drawdown since September 2011.

It is not all gloom and doom for crypto investors. On June 29, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said that the “Net Leverage metric” suggests that crypto’s deleveraging may be on its last legs. The eagerness of crypto companies with stronger balance sheets to bail out crypto firms in distress is also a positive sign.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Another positive view on Bitcoin came from Deutsche Bank analysts. In a recent report, the strategists said that the S&P 500 could recover lost ground and rally to the levels seen in January. This could benefit Bitcoin due to its close correlation with the S&P 500.

Could the downtrend resume or will lower levels attract buyers? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin plummeted below the immediate support at $19,637 on June 30 but the long tail on the candlestick indicates strong buying at lower levels. The bulls tried to build upon the momentum on July 1 and push the price toward the overhead resistance at $22,000 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are active at higher levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price sustains below $19,637, the likelihood of a retest of the critical support at $17,622 increases. The downsloping moving averages and the relative strength index in the oversold zone indicate that bears are in control.

A break and close below $17,622 could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The next support is at $15,000.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if the price rises above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($21,907). Such a move could clear the path for a possible rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($26,361).

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) dipped below the immediate support of $1,050 on June 30 but the bulls purchased the dip. The buyers tried to extend the recovery on July 1 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling on minor rallies.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to pull the price below the psychological level of $1,000. If they succeed, the selling could pick up momentum and the ETH/USDT pair could drop to the important support at $881. If this level gives way, the pair could resume the downtrend. The next support is at $681.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level or $1,000, the bulls will attempt to push the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, it will suggest that bears may be losing their grip. The bullish momentum could pick up on a break above $1,280.

/USDT

-coin-price-index” data-amp=”https://cointelegraph-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/cointelegraph.com/-coin-price-index”> dipped below the strong support at $211 on June 30 but the lower levels attracted strong buying as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.

/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers tried to extend the recovery on July 1 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are defending the 20-day EMA ($234) aggressively. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate advantage to sellers.

If the price sustains below $211, the /USDT pair could retest the crucial support at $183. If this support cracks, the downtrend could resume. The next support is at $150.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA. That could clear the path for a possible rally to the 50-day SMA ($271).

XRP/USDT

Ripple (XRP) attempted a recovery on June 30 but the bulls could not push the price above the overhead resistance at $0.35. This suggests that bears are not willing to let go of their advantage.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The XRP/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $0.28 where the bulls are likely to mount a strong defense. If the price rebounds off $0.28, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy at lower levels. The bulls will then make one more attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.37).

Conversely, if bears sink the price below $0.28, the next leg of the downtrend could begin. The pair could then decline to $0.23.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) bounced off $0.44 on June 30 but the bulls could not clear the 20-day EMA ($0.49) on July 1. This suggests that bears continue to defend the moving averages with vigor.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the price slips below $0.44, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to the critical support of $0.40.

The bulls are expected to defend this level with all their might because if the support cracks, the pair could resume its downtrend. The next support is at $0.33.

Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $0.44 or $0.40, the buyers will again try to clear the overhead resistance at the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could start a relief rally toward $0.70.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) dipped below the immediate support at $33 on June 30 but the long tail on the candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The buyers tried to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($36) on July 1 but the bears did not relent.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sellers will try to gain the upper hand by pulling the price below $30. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to $27 and later to the crucial support at $25.86. A break and close below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Another possibility is that the price rebounds off $30. That will indicate accumulation at lower levels. The bulls will then try to clear the overhead hurdle at the moving averages and push the price to $50.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the 20-day EMA ($0.07). The RSI is just below the midpoint and the 20-day EMA has flattened out, indicating a minor advantage to sellers.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price slips below $0.06, it will suggest that bears are back in the driver’s seat. The sellers will then attempt to sink the DOGE/USDT pair below the important support at $0.05 and resume the downtrend. The next support is at $0.04.

On the contrary, if the price rises from the current level, the buyers will again attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 50-day SMA ($0.08). If they succeed, it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip. The pair could then rally to the strong overhead resistance at $0.10.

Related: What bear market? This token is quietly making new highs, up 300% against Bitcoin in 2022

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) broke and closed below the strong support at $7.30 on June 29. The buyers tried to push the price back above the level on June 30 but failed. This suggests that bears are selling on every minor rally.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($7.74) has started to turn down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating that bears are in command. If the price breaks below $6.36, the DOT/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The next support is at $5.00.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will again attempt to clear the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($8.89).

LEO/USD

UNUS SED LEO (LEO) turned down on June 30 but the bulls did not allow the price to slip back into the descending channel. This indicates that buyers are trying to flip the resistance line into support.

LEO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The breakout from the channel indicates the start of a new up-move. The buyers pushed the price to $6.50 on July 1 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling on rallies. If bulls sustain the price above $6.00, the LEO/USD pair may again rise to $6.50. If this level is cleared, the rally could extend to the pattern target of $6.90.

To invalidate this bullish view, the bears will have to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($5.63). If that happens, the pair may drop to the 50-day SMA ($5.27).

SHIB/USDT

Shiba Inu (SHIB) closed below $0.000010 on June 28 but the bears could sustain the lower levels. The bulls bought the dip but are struggling to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.000010)

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint. This suggests a status of equilibrium between the buyers and sellers. If the price breaks below $0.000009, it will suggest an advantage to bears. The SHIB/USDT pair could then decline to the crucial support of $0.000007.

Alternatively, if bulls drive the price above the 50-day SMA, the pair could rise to $0.000012. This level may again act as a resistance but if crossed, the rally may reach $0.000014.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

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